by Mark Plotz
-> This article could have been titled: "Gains in Life Expectancy Slowed by Obesity, Shootings, and Overdoses." A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research examined preventable deaths for the period 1960-2010 and its conclusion is troubling: the longevity gained from our public health wins (safer cars, less smoking, less drinking) has been nearly cancelled out by the public health battles we are losing (obesity, shootings, and drug overdoses). The wins have given us an additional 1.82 years of good health; the losses have erased 1.77 years, leaving not much net gain. The study uses ‘quality-adjusted life expectancy’ as it is a more accurate measurement of years spent in good health. Read the working paper at https://bit.ly/1Ae7KDc or the summary at https://on.wsj.com/1sdkykg.
The decline in motor vehicle death rates is impressive, dropping from 20 per 100k in population (1960) to a little over 10 deaths per 100k (2010). The authors present the counterfactual scenario, which projects death rates if we had done nothing–freezing seat belt use, impaired driving, and vehicle safety at 1960 levels–and continued to drive at our current rate: we reach 78 deaths per 100k population by 2008 before the plunge in VMT brings deaths back down to 65 per 100k in 2010. The lesson seems to be it is remarkable what we can accomplish when government, the private sector, and the public agree on a public health threat and decide to act.
The trend is going the wrong way in Houston, where the voters told the City to turn off red light cameras in 2010. The result: more crashes–a lot more (https://bit.ly/1uqzPVc).
from CenterLines, the e-newsletter of the National Center for Bicycling & Walking.
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B’ Spokes: I want to emphasize: "The lesson seems to be it is remarkable what we can accomplish when government, the private sector, and the public agree on a public health threat and decide to act."
